Social Innovation Challange: Day Two

Day 2

With the Co-director of Lahore University Social Innovation lab still absent there was a change to the usual schedule. Instead we had session in our project groups with the ever inspiring Josie Francis who today reminded me how insightful she is when she made the observation that sexual assault in the UK is invariably committed by suspects known to the victim. Stranger rape in the UK is indeed very very rare. Unfortunately, after Josie’s statement we learned stranger rape in India (or at least in the experience of Jindal students) was common. However, this was useful as stranger rape then became a legitimate target for our efforts. We then started to think about how we would go about solving problems through the conduit of improving our new friends eating habits. I learned, as I did at the University of Southampton mental health lab, that asking why? , why? , why?, is a useful method of interrogating a problem. I had previously found it a bit childish and unprofessional so need to come up with a way of asking it without sounding like my 11 year old cousin.I began to work more comfortably with the Jindal students as you would after a few days. We were tasked with producing a solution to the healthy eating issues we had discovered using stationary, pens, string and biscuits, along with our thirst to do well and imagination. However, and I’m not ashamed of it at all, our group did not come up with a solution and instead chose to represent one of the problems through a role play. Sodexo are the Universities caterers and we found that students feel the contractors do not do every thing they can to encourage healthy eating. This what not the result I expected as I had thought we had an issue with lazy students who liked fast food. After another lovely lunch we returned to work. We started to discuss the project and began to narrow down our topic to tackle over the next few days. In the evening we travelled to a restaurant. The women in our group who are strong, intelligent women I am proud to work along side, noticed women were absent from the roads and road side restaurants. (Dhaba) Our thoughts were it was due to safety but perhaps this was because were had been hearing stories regarding women’ s safety. However, I doubt it was anything else. The meal we had was at Amrik Sukhdev was a high end high priced restaurant and low and behold more women started to appear. Perhaps women who can afford and expensive meal can also afford to travel safely to such eateries?

Southampton Social Innovation Challenge – Empowering Women in India 2015

Southampton Social Innovation Challenge   India 2015

Day One:

After a delayed start the group convened without the Pakistani students due to border Visa issues. This was very disappointing as I was looking forward to seeing Indian and Pakistani students mingle and witness them become the future of breaking down the nuclear charged animosity between the two manufactured states. We carried on however, and began with a talk from Pathik Pathak. I had never heard him give a talk or seminar or lecture before and found him very interesting. He made me realize that I was going to be able to use the skills I learned here and they would be transferable. I just had to know how to sell it. Pathik came up with ”multi disciplinary” and ”multi diverse” both of which I will use in future CV’s or interviews. Its something I have always done anyway but now I have a better way of putting it. We then had a talk in relation to the digital side of social innovation and heard how context, scepticism of the internet in general and use of industry specific language were all important. After a well deserved break we gathered again to look at software that was supposed to help us visualise networks and links of people. I found it very confusing as relationship building (a skill I have always felt confident with) has always been a physical thing or at least talking on the phone – not drawing them out. I guess its just not my learning style. The Indian students looked as though they were buying into it. It was then our turn to produce some work and were given new sources of ideas relating to social innovation projects. On http://www.babele.com I found I project in India that I will present to the rest of the group tomorrow. It really stood out to me as at this time I am interested it things that are achievable and related to youth intervention. Something I dabbled in while in Hampshire Police. Socially, we became friends with more Indian students and we are looking forward to speaking to them more in breaks and evenings in the next ten days. Josie Francis (Programme Manager at the Social Innovation Lab at University of Southampton) continues to be inspiring and I only hope I can work with her enthusiasm and energy. My expectations have not fully formed as yet but this worries me not as when the time comes to set myself goals I will do so as a better informed participant.

The Reasons for OMP Data Breach 2

Disclosures by ‘a senior government official’, the FBI and the White House have, over the past 24 hours, shown that a second OMP hack attributed to have come from China has dragged data relating to standard form 86 into the hands of those it was never intended to be.

News sources have described that unit 61398 (the PLA unit tasked with cyber/information warfare) has gained access to the form that asked respondents, intelligence officers and defence contractors to fill out details of mental health issues, financial situation and close family mamners including ‘people who are close to you’. The form can be found here: https://www.opm.gov/forms/pdf_fill/sf86.pdf

Initialy, the first hack on the 5th of June that gained access to the HR department or Officer for Personel Management (OPM) seemed useless and just a matter that would irk the US but the information on these forms is now of strategic use to the Chinese.

Attribution can be said to be probably from one of 3 sources at this time.

1) unit 61398, directly instructed by senior PLA commanders in the military council chaired by President Xi Jinping.

2) North Korea have been know to operate with in North East China and are thought to have recently hacked Sony.

3) Non state actors within China who would have links to those in the unit 61398.

Any of these scenarios mean China knew as the constraints on the internet in China mean its servers are tightly controlled and monitored and Westphilan attribution can level the problem directly with the state in China as being in the know or at least not being able to feign ignorance as to who did it, where and when.

The reasons why China have done this can be explained by China’s desperate and continuous work on proping the CCP and giving continued GDP rises to the Chinese people. The data in the forms of relating to contractors, people known to intelligence officers etc… mean China can remotely look to source engineering plans, defence blueprints and other related info and ideas from places outside US Government such as smaller previously unknown researchers and companies. This will speed up China’s military build up which will in the long run grant it energy and economic security. Ergo: keeping the Chinese population content with gradual 7% GPD rises year after year and the continuous rule of the CCP.

Full Intelligence and Security Committee Report into death of Lee Rigby

https://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/248153458?access_key=key-SVoEn08Kyh2p7PmK3NmY&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll

India’s Role in a Changing Afghanistan by Shashank Joshi. The Washington Quartely 37:2, 87-102

This is a newspaper and media evidence rich analysis of India’s thinking on the draw down of US troops and the development of political resolutions in Afghanistan.

It begins by outlining that India has thought the reluctance to cross over the border into Pakistan was ‘botched’ and the US have ‘subcontracted’ peace to the ISI.

Joshi says India feel threatened by the local political solutions being discussed and see it as ‘a euphemism for Taliban dominance in parts of Afghanistan’

It seems India and the US have lots in common, they both fully support ANSF efforts to impose control and the US should consider more support of Indian efforts in this regard as it begins to draw down. Joshi explains that concomitantly, the US should persuade the new Modi government to involve the Taliban is discussions. Joshi makes a good point here that India probably make the error of thinking the Taliban are Pakistan ISI. In reality the Haqquani network are probably more affiliated to ISI and the modern day Taliban are more independent of the old guard.

The most useful contribution this article makes is the thoughts on how India should see the Taliban office in Doha. While it does legitimise the group somewhat it also distances them from ISI and Pakistan, something New Delhi should be pleased off.

Suggestions for India include ramping up the 500 or so troops India train and somehow stem the 5000 per month attrition rate in the ANSF. With Indian experience in counter insurgency and dealings with terrorism the replacements they train maybe good for the security of India and Afghanistan. Pakistan seem comfortable with this idea and would, over time install Indian culture and practices in the ANSF.

All in all this tight production of 15 pages is very useful. It present the idea of India accepting the Doha office as a step away from ISI influence very convincingly and makes good suggestions for India’s role in training troops for the ANSF.

A British Bill Of Rights is Wrong

With the announcement by David Cameron at this years Tory party conference of wholesale changes to our position on Human Rights law, what effects will it have on people outside of the UK? A lot has been said of how it will improve the lives of British citizens but we also, as a developed economy and beneficiary of a history of oppression, hoodwinkery and violence against others have to consider other nation states.

By abandoning our commitment a universal human rights
law or set of laws and the creation of a British Bill of Rights we will loose the ability to question the human rights of other nation states.

I am specifically thinking off China but also of other states with any issue with their human rights record. Qatar for instance and its workers rights building FIFA world cup stadia or Nigeria and the rights for its gay community.
If Britain breaks from ithe human rights act how can we possibly question the behaviour of other states in relation to their human rights? As long as they have some codified rights in law they are no better or worse than the UK would be as the universality of human rights would no longer exist.

Unless we prescibe to the universality of human rights we begin to loose the battle. The English School looks at International Relations theory as a way of using human rights as a method of formalizing international relations,where are these supporters now? I expect more forceful opposing of the new British Bill of Rights from these people.
Its also, unfortunately, a death for our diplomacy. If our arguements for change, e.g prisoners not geting the vote then they should stand up to debate in European Legislature and Parliament. If it does not, why are we persueing in this we’re taking our ball home kind of way.

A British Bill of Rights, fails to consider anyone but ourselves, this is not a 21st Century British characteristic. The universality of human rights was what is so strong about it and an idea that has helped develop new ways of thinking about Foreign Policy.

Without this universality we cannot possiblely condemn other states and their individual interpretations of what constitutes human rights. If human rights is culturally determined then who are we to say Chinese treatment of Tibetans is wrong?

Keep the Human Rights Act as part of British Law and influence others to follow it not run away and put all the hard work at risk.

China to Vote ‘Yes’ (if it could) in Scottish Referendum

With Scottish independence a real possibility tomorrow, it is worth considering what are the gains to be made in relation to China. There are two separate ways of looking at these issues. What would the Peoples Republic of China gain and seek to gain, and vice versa, what would Peoples Republic of Scotland seek to gain?

Firstly, according to the under valued Leo Lewis at The Times, the CCP hierarchy will be rubbing their hands with glee at the very thought of political instability in the UK.

The Chinese political classes see the UK as a dinosaur and not warranting of their position in the world and overbearing place on the UN security council.

The case of a tiny minority seeking and winning independence from the UK will not be lost on China and will no doubt be an excuse to privately level at UK diplomats when human rights issues are bilaterally discussed.

UK diplomats should be prepared for this by completely backing the decision (if it is a Yes) in the direction of onlooking nations, not just China but South Sudan and Russia and other states that may not react so well to independence. It is only this way that the UK can look other states in the eye come discussions over South Sudan, Tibet/Uighur Provinces and indeed Georgian territory and to that end Ukrainian territory.

Tibeten independence has taken a huge hit from its UK supporters as Scottish independence is likely to be a clear case study China will use of the dangers of democracy and giving in to minority preferences.

China will also gain a overt and clear subordinate in Scotland in terms of trade. Salmond as entertained CCP officials at Whiskey factory’s in Scotland and China know Scotland know they need China should they win independence. Salmonds wooing seems to have gone down very well and is something China would like the UK to do more of.

But what do the Scottish seek to gain out of this with China. There will of course be investiture, in energy for one. Scotland intends to be nuclear free so there will be no nuclear power deals as in the rest of the UK. It is as yet unclear how symbiotic the relationship will be but time will tell. Scotland have already had the Pandas, maybe China would come up with something more substantial?

However, it we can be sure of one thing, it is that Scotlands relationship with China will be a symbolic one and China wll reap the rewards from any unstatesmanlike behaviour post poll from Friday onwards.

Study China Programme 2014 – Nanjing University

Day One/Two

Some what nervously, I travelled from Heathrow to Shanghai. I had prepared myself as much as possible not only in the run up to the trip but also by doing a Chinese Language module the previous semester and Understanding Modern China module at my university, Southampton but also by researching China and Nanjing as best I could. I would really recommend the Lonely Planet guide to anywhere but the China one was particulary useful. I met several people on Study China on the flight as they were not hard to identify. However, most were off to Beijing mot Nanjing.

My flight left the UK at 11:50 and I landed in Shanghai at 09:00 on Sunday morning. I was in plent of time for the shuttle bus but…. My luggage had been lost in Moscow (my connecting flight) and I was to be without it for some time. Owing to being tired and my natural disposition I did not let it worry me and slept most of the 5 hour shuttle bus to Nanjing. We arrived at Nanjing about 4pm and after some time checking in were in our rooms at 5pm. I was so lucky to get a great room mate. We got on immediately and ended up borrowing a few t shirts until my luggage arrivd some days later. After unpacking and familiarising ourselves with the hotel, we went out to eat. There was loads to chose from and luckily we had a good Chinese speaker to help order. We went to bed well fed and a little less nervous about the forthcoming 3 weeks.

Day 3

I naturally wake up early anyway but when I am in a new place I like to explore. I woke up at 6:30 and went round the corner to a street food vendor where I got a breakfast wrap for 4 Yuan (40p) I was strange having a bit of spice in the morning but was very tasty. I went back to our room to shower and prepare for our meeting at 9am. We gathered for a opening ceremony with a speech from a student and a talk from the University which is the 3rd best in China! After this we had a small tour of the campus andthen had the rest of the afternoon to ourselves. We ate lunch and headed towards the Confucious temple area for a look around. After this we went to the Nanjing city walls which was very very impressive we arrived at dusk and saw the city light up as night fell. That evening we when to Ellens Bar for a drink before going to bed and resting before lessons in the morning.

Day 4

Today was the day my luggage arrived but not before lessons had started. Today was Tuesday and we began with a meeting at 8:50 before being shown to our classrooms. We then had Chinese from 9-12 and then a two hour break for lunch. We then had Chinese Philosophy for 3 hours which, while it was not my first choice I am so glad I did and a module on Confucianism and Daoism will look so good on my CV. My luggage arrived after this and I was able to get into my own clothes and have a shower with my own wash bag. Yey!!! What I relief! I did half an hour or so of Chinese in the evening and then we went for a walk down to the 1912 district where all the bars are. after exploring we went home and to be. I really felt I had made some friends in the 4 days and has started to find a little more about some of the people. It was such a big mix of degree subjects and universities. However, it had dawned on me that the vast majority of people were from very wealthy backgrounds. Not that they were not great people but very few people came from the back ground I did of working class people.

Day 5

Today was Chinese between 9-12 again and I took the option of arriving an hour early at 8am to swot up a little before class. I am dyslexic and need to spend time doing something for it to slowly sink in. There was no point in coming all this way and taking it easy. After some great street food near the university entrance we had our first Taiji lesson and Calligraphy lesson. Both were new to me and the Taiji in particular was fascinating and so so funny. I really engaged myself with it and found it to be very relaxing. Doing it in front of 25 people you have known for 5 days is actually a plus point. Doing the first Taiji really got me exicited for the next lesson which was in a few days time.

Day 6

We had Chinese from 9-12 again and I did from 8 to 9 again in the classroom on my own. It really helps and I would recomment it to anyone as a way of consolidating what you know. After the lesson we were on a half day and I chose to try out the gym and see what it was like. I paid 10 Yuan for entry and they had every piece of equipment you could imagine apart from a rowing machine and free weights. There was also an athletics staium that was open to the public for free and had approx 200 people in it at anytime. There was room to run round though but as it was midday it was probably a bit too hot so I stuck to the gym. There is no A/C in there but it was good as it was like having a sauna and a workout at the same time. After having a shower me and my group of about 10 went to the Nanjing Massacre Museum. I had not heard a thing about it and was shocked to learn about the killing by the Japanese army in 1937 of the abandoned residents of Nanjing. It really affected me and while I would recommend going, be warned it does not hold back.

Day 7

Today we had our usual Chinese lesson and then the Philosophy lesson. Today was a little different as we all sat in a circle and discussed the issues at hand. This meant everyone had more chance to speak and engaged a little more. After classes I when to the gym again and then got ready to go out. We were heading down to 1912 and were planning to have a dance and meet some Chinese people even if it was just to sday Ni Hao!

Day 8

Saturday, and my group were heading towards the lake and the temple. It was so humid but once you get over the fact you really enjoy the climate. I much prefer it to dry heat. The smog over Nanjing also doesn’t help but it did not ditract from the amazing views and sounds of the two areas we visited. We must have walked miles by the lake and it was a good chance to get to know some of the people I went with. When I got back I did some washing which meant getting a washing maching card and topping it up in the wash room. I had borrowed some washing powder from a friend who had bought a sack load.

Day 9

Day 9 went so fast. It was a whole day off and was spent by going down to the gym in the morning and then an amazing afternoon at the Presidential Palace. It was really good to go to as It was in effect a history lesson on the fall of the first republic and the rise of the communist state. As I do Politics and International Relations as a degree subject it helped me understand what happened during that time and is something I may use when I enter my 3rd year at Southampton. After the Palace we ate street food which is some of the best I have ever had. Its also good because people try new things and get things from different places while all remaining together. Most things cost 5-10 Yuan so trying new things is not expensive.

Day 10

Today was back to classes and I did an hour Chinese in the morning before lesson. I then did the 3 hour lesson. Things really start to stack up in the second week I recommend you really kjeep chipping away and do the odd hour here and there as it is better than huge blocks. We then had our third Philosophy lecture and were given details of the assessment. It was to a presentation in groups of 4 or 5 and we given a large remit to work with. We basically had to use the material we had learned to answer a question we set ourselves. We chose, where does goodness come from? We met in our groups afterwards and planned to do some solo work and meet again later in the week.

Day 11

Today was Chinese for 3 hours  as well as my usual hour in the morning followed by the trip to the 2014 Nanjing Youth Olympic Games. We went on the coach and played games on the way and then went into the badminton arena. We saw lots of different games on three courts with some more one sided than others. I had never seen badminton live before and it was exiting to experience. On returning to the accommodation I when to the gym again and then did a good hour or so of Chinese as my roommate was out and working in the quiet is good now and again.

Day 12

Chinese lesson today was very hard as we were all very tired. However, doing it was good and no doubt some of it went in. It is the sheer consistency of doing Chinese everyday that helps in the end. We had our second and last Taiji and Calligraphy lessons and it was sad that it ended. I will try and use the Taiji I learned back at home but onl really learned two moves. It would have been nice to have had more Taiji lessons and would recommend that future study china programmes do this. We also had our class photos on this day.

Day 13

In Chinese today we were given a small task of preparing for a short oral test on the title ‘my day in China’ the emphasis was on the tones rather than length which made it very hard. After another two hour lunch break which I was getting used to by now. You can use it to take a knap as it is very hot in the day, or to explore the local area for street food or work. Because China is 8 hours ahead you cannot Skype or phone home at lunch time and this has to be kept to evenings. In the afternoon we made traditional Chinese dumplings with some advice from the student advisors.

Day 14

Today was more Chinese for the three hours and then the last of our lectures on can the heart think/Chinese philosophy. In the evening about 30 of us went to KTV a Chinese karaoke place, for a students 21st birthday party. It was on 5 floors and one each floor was about 30 rooms. It is so big in China. Everyone had a good singsong and a certain someone had a great 21st Birthday in China. We went to a nice restarant before called Nanjing Impressions. It was highly recommended in all the guidebooks and was really good and traditional.

Day 15/16

Today was the history groups turn to go on a trip and I went along as it was up the Purple Mountain which had cable cars and temples. It was another really hot day and the smog was giving us really high pressure again. We spend ages there and it was nice to spend time with other groups for a change. When I got back I had another knap and spent the rest of the day looking round the uni and preparing for the presentations we had in philosophy and in Chinese. I was getting a little nervous and needed to knuckle down. I had a lie in on Sunday, the first one for a long time as I had been working at home before I went to China. I went to the gym and did some more work before going to bed. The aircon is so nice and 25 degrees in the perfect temp to sleep to. It does however mean that when my roommate got ill, I too got it. If not through the aircon then the sharing of food and close proximity in lessons etc…

Day 17

Back to work on Monday and another hour of Chinese before the lesson. We then had a half day and went quickly to another temple but this was unlike any of the others. It was on one of the main roads in Nanjing but behind the wall was an oasis of rockeries and peace gardens, bonzi trees and waterfalls. It was amazing to think that just a few metres behind the hustle and bustle of the city was such peaceful surroundings. It began to rain while we were there and it was monsoon rain for approx one hour. When it eased off we got some street food and got a taxi home. My advice would be to take an umbrella. We finalised our presentations as for tomorrow we had both our Chinese and philosophy ones to give.

Day 18

Presentation Day: My Chinese presentation was not as good as some but I was happy with it. They lasted until the break and then had our normal Chinese lesson. We then had our two hour break when we had a quick meeting before the afternoon presentation. The philosophy presentation went very well despite being very nervous. Everyone’s was very different and I had no idea what was coming next. One person even did a poem. I was please with whaat I did as we didn’t have access to the uni library and the internet connectivity was very poor. I did a comparison between Plato and Confucious which would never have been able to do without Study China.

Day 19

Visit to Nanjing Museum. It was huge! but lacked the exhibits to put in it.There were vast swayths of space with nothing in it. After the museum we tries to find the Ming tomb which was easier said than done. We went on the metro which was 2 Yuan for any journey which is really cheap and such an experience if you are only used to the underground or the trams in Manchester. We then went home and began to revise as in two days we were to have our Chinese written exam and I had to learn a lot of Characters.

Day 20

Our last lesson of Chinese and then a half day to prepare for the test. We did go out for a bit though as it is easy to get cabin fever if you stay in even for just a few hours. There are so many places to go even for a couple of hours just make sure you get a good guidebook.

Day 21/22….

The last day of the programme. We had our Chinese test where I wrote the whole exam in Chinese characters.  We had an hour to do it in and afterwards we watched a kungfu film where we had the chance to try and pick up the spoken chinese. We also practised a song and dance we had to perform for the closing ceremony later that day. We were singing a love song and had choreographed some dance moves to it. We all got changed into smart clothes and headed to the closing ceremony where we heard a closing speech from a student and from the staff at the university. We then had our closing ceremony meal and some people headead off as they had early flights to catch. I was heading off to Shanghai the next day and got the 11am shuttle bus.

Jamal Osman and MI6. A solution for both

Jamal Osmans Guardian article http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/26/british-citizen-passport-control has such a personal touch and is delivered with such brevity that it is one of the few articles I have felt like sharing with others recently. Normally I allow others to find news they are interested in instead of forcing my orientation on others. Osman’s piece has brought up some issues however, both for himself and the security service of the UK. In this article I highlight them and offer a solution that would be of benefit to UK security apparatus and stop Osman being bothered ever again.

First of all, Osman should not be surprised such frequent passage through Heathrow has brought him to the attention of authorities. I guess (due to his omission of this information) that his colleagues he refers to are white and here he takes issue. Although profiling does not officially happen Osman must understand that he will be of interest to security officials over any white middle class journos he compares himself to. Should home office officials be looking at Somali diaspora in the Republic of Ireland when combating the remaining threat of the IRA? He also says his friends have been stopped once and says so as if this is a fact. How does he know that these are telling the truth, has he seen it with his own eyes? It maybe that Osman’s colleagues are already in the employ of MI6 and as such are not needed to me stopped as a pretence to recruit them as they have already or maybe they are discrete enough to lie to Osman. In truth, we know as much as he does.

Has it occurred that rather than the profiling Osman in accordance with his ethnicity he may be an incredibly important resource worth pestering? I would not suggest he should be flattered but he should really understand. While the treats are against the law which MI6 should work within and claim to do so, there is nothing wrong with being asked to talk and for him to listen. He quotes ‘’nice car’’ and ‘’handsome salary’’ as if they are dirty phases. They are just trying to persuade as best they know obviously have no real tactic in dealing with the issues they face. It does however seem to have gone too far now and the ill treatment and insults are a sign of defeat in Osman’s case. I agree they should give up on him and move on.

But move on to what? UK Security services cannot keep on like this. Some targets who feel the same as Osman will just not have the voice he has to fight and instead of recruiting valuable recruits will be fostering resent in businessmen and Somali nations who make frequent trips back to the homeland. This could end up creating more work… its amateurish.

One area that would reap more rewards it a relationship building exercise with Somaliland in the north of Somalia. The relatively peaceful autonomous region of Somaliland has for years been a stable democratic state able to provide a people of similar language cultural roots and understanding but as yet has not been asked to lend support or represent a conduit for gathering intelligence on Somalia in the south. In fact the government in Hargeisa would go to great lengths to look statesman like and provide support to intelligence officials working in Somaliland. There would be no need to harass British journalists when patriotic Somalilanders could be asked and tasked to either corroborate existing Intel, provide counterfactual information if it exists or provide new intel. It would suit Somaliland as if it wishes to develop as a sovereign state one day it must begin to operate in partnership with western allies and would look good in the eyes of the USA in particular, Just look at the support and standing of Djibouti.

By concentrating solely on the gathering of intelligence on Somalia through Somaliland it would be both beneficial for the fledgling state itself and stop people like Osman being harassed. It is not a neo-colonial demand but partnership working with a peaceful and democratic area of North East Africa. UK security services should forge closer ties with the state of Somaliland and perhaps Puntland after all it is in the interest of all involved that that relationship succeeds.

Methodology in Action –

I have used some of what I have learned about methodology in an essay I wrote for another module. Methodology part begins at 3.

The State of the Study of China: Towards a Better Understanding of Chinas Rise and Strategic Intentions.

The rise of China is set to be the most important aspect of international relations over the coming decades. ‘The Tragedy of Great Power Politics’ (2001) warned us that US foreign policy in relation to China was both ‘misguided’ and ‘doomed to failure.’ In no uncertain terms John Mearsheimer implored that the US ‘reverse course and do what it can to slow the rise of China.’ (Mearsheimer, 2001, p.401-402)

In the first part of this essay I will attempt to briefly describe how neo realism and offensive realism engineers China into being a threat to the US. I will explain that according to neo realism China has little choice but to develop into a regional hegemon. In the second part I suggest this may have had an adverse methodological effect on how China is studied by the west. Finally, I document some solutions to this problem and warn that while it may not be true that China is ‘unlikely to assume defence commitments beyond its immediate periphery’ (Dobbins, 2012 p.9) claims that China are acting or will act offensively need to be grounded on fair and unbiased social science led research.

1. How neo realism forces China to rise

A study of neo-realism says that it ‘posits that the anarchic structure of the international system conditions inter-state relations and that conflict is an enduring possibility’ (Glenn, 2003, p.5). This allows Mearsheimer to predict that Chinas rise will not be peaceful because states ‘seek to survive under anarchy by maximising their power relative to other states, in order to maintain the means of self-defence… they sometimes see aggression as the best way to accumulate more power at the expense of rivals.’ (Mearsheimer, 1990, p.15)

Thanks to Mearsheimer and others, neo realism is of course an enduring idea that seems to explain so much from the past (Mearsheimer, 1990) and helps us form coherent and feasible models for the future (Mearsheimer, 2001).

The past can of course be verified by empirical record. The future, according to the theory, can be predicted as states cannot help but seek to maximise relative power over other states and become regional hegemons in the anarchical international system (Mearsheimer, 2001, p.33-36). No matter how much we abhor this, it is a predefined course of events.

It means one can agree that the world abides by neo-realist rules and at the same time, and until a world government holds sway, wish that it did not. This is what is meant by the works title. It is a tragedy. Going by this explanation China has the reputation it has thanks, in part, to the structural, unalterable conditions we exist in. This must in some ways create and foster a feeling of inevitability amongst believers in the theory and could lead to a culture of failing to properly produce evidence supporting or refuting the proposition.

2. How neo realism can restrict our understanding of Chinas rise.

Despite this structural course that proponents of neo-realism and in particular Mearsheimer’s offensive realism suggest, it is perhaps unfair to hastily tarnish Chinas defence strategy with the offensive neo-realism brush. Recent studies can show China to be following the course Mearsheimer sets out, in looking to create a regional hegemon. This can be seen in studies of conventional strategy China is engaged in such as in the recent appraisal of Chinese military ability by Steven Blank. Blank documents recent Chinese military strategy that is supposedly designed to compete with US defence interests in the region and appears to conform to the events neo realism predicts (Blank, 2013 p.245). The issue these and other studies of China have is that given our thorough knowledge of neo realism as an international relations theory that says certain events are structural and unstoppable, the identification of evidence that seems to genuinely and independently support it is very important.

We have a situation where theory, and perhaps stereotypes, are informing data and evidence rather than the other way round. For instance, Blanks’ work on the Chinese military does not fully explore the United States’ control over the major energy silk roads in the straits of Aden and Malacca and the extent to which this affects the arms deal that recently saw China purchase $2Billion of Aircraft and submarines from Russia (Blank, 2013 p.248). It also fails to recognise that 75% of Chinese oil will need to be imported by 2020 (Jacques, 2009 p.325). This should be taken into consideration as perhaps the variable affecting Chinese military spending in this way is the issue over protecting a supply of energy not the development of a Navy that could rival the local US Naval presence and develop its hegemony. Blanks work is therefore incomplete and hastily concludes that Chinas behaviour is threatening rather than defensive.

3. Solutions

The problem of influenced research on China has been covered by Yung Wei in a series of points raised in his article ‘Social Science and the Methodology of Contemporary China Studies: A Critical Evaluation’ (1985). It was designed to warn us that theories can be self-fulfilling prophesies and that we should conduct sound social science research to combat, and help guard against it.

He outlines three main issues which influence research into China. These would then suggest we look again at how we know what we know about China and we may be at risk of being misinformed.

Firstly, Wei said there is a tendency by western scholars to take a purely ‘sinological approach’ to the study of the China and these arrive at purely descriptive accounts of Chinese history and culture. (Wei, 1985 p.3). This allows policy makers and lay readers to interpret from this what they want. While this kind of research is helpful and particularly in Chinas case absolutely fascinating, Wei argues that for us to understand China better and to understand the broad discipline of social sciences at its universal level of analysis, future academics should employ social science methodology to the study of China and the Chinese and not continue to be purely descriptive (Wei, 1985 p.10). This would mean Blanks’ disclosure of Sino-Russian military hardware deals should come with deeper social science led exploration as to the reason why.

Studying China in this way then presents some methodology problems and asks fundamental questions such as what is the meaning of China? Do we mean Communist China or Taiwan and China? (Wei, 1985 p.6) It is a question that can be asked of the study of Chinese defence strategy such as when Michael Pillsbury questions the analysis of the PLA and US Armed Forces by comparative means. (Pillsbury, 2001 p.1). The means of study need to be first tested and then set.

Secondly, Wei believes that the misrepresentation of China through research can be due to the wanton and the deliberate distortion of reality. While Wei rightly questions the academic integrity of those guilty of the latter, Wei does cite the factor of McCarthyism in the study of China for US academics in the 1950’s and perhaps the distortion of reality at this time can be excused by the very real threat of imprisonment, blacklisting and personal and professional ruin. (Wei, 1985 p.7). These are hardly accusations that can be levelled at western researchers. There are no repercussions so great that could excuse deliberate and premeditated distortion of evidence today.

Thirdly, and importantly for those questioning whether Mearsheimer’s predictions are having too greater influence on the results of research on Chinas defence spending and military intentions, is what Wei calls ‘orientation’ and while not intentionally distortive, it can be just as damaging. Orientation is the conditions in which the research is being conducted and under what circumstances. While McCarthyism may have made academics intentionally doctor results and conclusions or omit certain information on China. The very real fear and threat of nuclear war throughout the 1950’s and the thought of China developing its own may have subconsciously influenced work produced at the time. This idea is not unique to the threat of nuclear war. Having understood the repercussions of neo-realism and Mearsheimer’s prediction of Chinas offensive rise, a researchers ‘orientation’ maybe biased to such a degree that their findings are formed by the theory instead of the findings supporting the theory.

However, orientation can take different forms. In Kumar Singhs analysis of Chinas defence modernisation from 1949-2005 as part of the ‘Four Modernisations’ he laments the non-western accounting style and lack of breakdown on research and development spending and PLA Navy spending (Kumar Singh, 2005 p.690). This is a legitimate concern where the orientation of a western scholar to want comprehensible and transparent data from which to conduct research is integral to understanding China. It leaves gaps in our knowledge that means attempts to fill it (Luff and Erickson, 2013 p.815) risk the danger of being subconsciously led by neo realist predictions.

In conclusion, Mearsheimer’s offensive realism has an ironic twist. It can structurally predispose researchers to producing evidence in support of it. Only a move to using vigorous and probably quantitative findings can we be sure that evidence in support of neo realism is trustworthy and not affected by the pitfalls of weak research.

References

Blank, Steven (2013) ‘Russo-China Military Relations’ The Journal of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy 35:5 pp 755-785

Dobbins, James (2012) ’War With China’ Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 54:4 pp 7-24

Glenn John (2004) Neorealism Versus Strategic Culture. Ashgate: Aldershot.

Jacques, Martin (2009) ‘When China Rules the World’ Penguin Books: London

Kumar Singh, Bhartendu (2005) ‘The Political Economy of Chinas Defence Modernisation. Strategic Analysis, 29:4 pp 680-706

Luff, Adam and Erikson, Andrew (2013) ’Demystifying Chinas Defence Spending’ The China Quarterly 21:6 pp 815-830

Mearsheimer, John J (1990) Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War’ International security Vol. 15(1)

Mearsheimer, John J (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. W W. Norton & Company: London.

Pillsbury, Michael (2001) Chinas Military Strategy Toward The U.S. A View from Open Sources

Wei, Yung (1985) ‘Social Science and the Methodology of Contemporary China Studies: A Critical Evaluation’ found at http://www.yungwei.url.tw/file/C20.pdf [Accessed 28/03/2014]