This is a newspaper and media evidence rich analysis of India’s thinking on the draw down of US troops and the development of political resolutions in Afghanistan.
It begins by outlining that India has thought the reluctance to cross over the border into Pakistan was ‘botched’ and the US have ‘subcontracted’ peace to the ISI.
Joshi says India feel threatened by the local political solutions being discussed and see it as ‘a euphemism for Taliban dominance in parts of Afghanistan’
It seems India and the US have lots in common, they both fully support ANSF efforts to impose control and the US should consider more support of Indian efforts in this regard as it begins to draw down. Joshi explains that concomitantly, the US should persuade the new Modi government to involve the Taliban is discussions. Joshi makes a good point here that India probably make the error of thinking the Taliban are Pakistan ISI. In reality the Haqquani network are probably more affiliated to ISI and the modern day Taliban are more independent of the old guard.
The most useful contribution this article makes is the thoughts on how India should see the Taliban office in Doha. While it does legitimise the group somewhat it also distances them from ISI and Pakistan, something New Delhi should be pleased off.
Suggestions for India include ramping up the 500 or so troops India train and somehow stem the 5000 per month attrition rate in the ANSF. With Indian experience in counter insurgency and dealings with terrorism the replacements they train maybe good for the security of India and Afghanistan. Pakistan seem comfortable with this idea and would, over time install Indian culture and practices in the ANSF.
All in all this tight production of 15 pages is very useful. It present the idea of India accepting the Doha office as a step away from ISI influence very convincingly and makes good suggestions for India’s role in training troops for the ANSF.